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Sub-Saharan Africa’s Difficult Road to Recovery
By ABEBE AEMRO SELASSIE, Director, African Department, IMF
The COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented health and economic crisis for sub-Saharan Africa. Within months, the spread of the virus has jeopardized years of development and decades-long gains against poverty in the region while threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people.
In our latest Regional Economic Outlook, we project -3 percent growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP in 2020, representing the worst outcome on record for the region. The drop will be even larger for economies dependent on tourism and commodity exports. Growth in the region should rebound modestly in 2021 to 3.1 percent, but for many countries, a return to 2019 levels won’t occur until 2022-24.
Countries in the region acted swiftly to protect their people from the worst of the crisis, but lockdown measures came with high economic and social costs. Policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa now face the added challenge of rekindling their economies with fewer resources and more difficult choices.
As the region looks toward the future, uncertainty over the path of the pandemic continues to loom over an enduring recovery.
Confronting policy constraints and hard choices
The top policy priority should be saving lives and protecting livelihoods through health spending and income and liquidity support for households and businesses. Even with limited funds, policymakers acted swiftly with what they had.
However, countries in the region entered the crisis with significantly less fiscal space than they had prior to the global financial crisis of 2008-09. COVID-19 related fiscal support in sub-Saharan Africa has averaged 3 percent of GDP—markedly less than what has been spent in other regions of the world.
Advanced economies have had the space to do “whatever it takes.” In sub-Saharan Africa no such luxury exists, as countries struggle to do “whatever is possible” with their scarce resources.
Limited resources will ultimately force difficult choices.
Fiscal policies needed to boost the economy will have to be balanced against debt sustainability—already a daunting challenge for many countries in the region. The need to support growth through monetary policy will need to be matched against maintaining external stability and longer-term credibility. Financial regulation and supervision measures are needed to address crisis-affected banks and firms but should not compromise longer-term growth.
All the while, efforts to stabilize and grow economies must be weighed against the need to maintain social stability while preparing for sustained and inclusive growth over the long term.
Calling on the global community for support
Without significant additional financial assistance, many sub-Saharan African countries will struggle to simply maintain macroeconomic stability while meeting the basic needs of their populations.
The IMF has taken swift action to cover a significant portion of the region’s needs by providing about $16 billion financing this year alone to 33 countries and immediate debt service relief to 22 of the poorest, most vulnerable sub-Saharan African countries. We are working with countries to put in place governance mechanisms to help ensure that the funds benefit their people as intended.
We have also worked with the G20 to suspend debt service payments to official bilateral creditors and welcome the extension of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative.
But more help is needed. Sub-Saharan Africa faces additional financing needs of $890 billion through 2023. Private financial flows are expected to fill less than half of that need, while current commitments from international financial institutions and bilateral donors will cover only one-quarter of the need. Under that scenario, the region still faces a projected financing gap of $290 billion through 2023.
No country should have to choose between paying their debt or providing food and medicine for their people. To prevent the loss of decades-worth of development gains, the region will need access to more grants, concessional credit, and debt relief.
Looking toward a brighter future
Despite an uncertain outlook, the potential of sub-Saharan Africa and the resourcefulness of its people remain clear. Now is the time for lasting transformational reforms.
Sub-Saharan Africa will find its way back to a path of green, sustainable and inclusive development. The pandemic has presented a historic opportunity to build a better future and the international community has an important role to play.
Fostering better transparency and governance to improve trust in rule of law, strengthen business conditions and encourage external support will be a key element for developing a better future. Transformative domestic reforms to improve revenue mobilization, digitalization, trade integration, competition, social safety nets, and climate-change mitigation will be critical for the region’s resilience, growth and job creation.
Nelson Mandela once said, “may your choices reflect your hopes, not your fears.” The long climb out of this crisis won’t come easy, but the actions and choices of today will be vital for a prosperous and resilient future for sub-Saharan Africa.
Culled from IMF Blog
The Guru. Visionary. Pacesetter. Colossus. Transformer.
Happy birthday to Otunba Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr.), Chairman of Globacom and Conoil PLC as he marks his 72 years birthday on Tuesday April 29, 2025. Cheers to one Nigerian who bestrides the African business landscape.
A special gift to Nigeria, he is renowned for his business acumen. When it is comes to business, he’s got the vision. He can see good fortune light years ahead while others are still pandering whether it is feasible.
Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr.) is unafraid to venture where others fear to tread. Fondly called ‘The Bull’ for his fearless and zeal. He’s got this Midas touch that is unparalleled. His boundless energy, philanthropy, native intelligence and wisdom combined stand him out, enabling him to see ahead of others the right sectors and businesses to invest and transform.
Changing Telecom Services Narrative
If there is anyone who single-handedly transformed Nigerian telecommunications industry, that person is no other than Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr.). His tenacity to recover his Digital Mobile Licence (DML) which his company won in 2001 mobile auction but was illegally taken away from him, paid off in 2002 when his company, Globacom won the Second National Operator (SNO) licence.
In September 2003, Globacom transformed the Nigerian telecoms market in particular and Africa in general by being the first Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) operator to launch operations with Per Second Billing, Multimedia Service (MMS), Mobile Internet, in additional to plethora of communications suites simultaneously.
Glo crashed the price of Subscriber Identification Module (SIM) card, leaving other foreign mobile networks scratching their heads in the GSM wars that changed the face of telecom, bringing down the price of SIM Card from N50,000 down to N100 and later to One Naira (N1) only.
Millions of Nigerians became overnight owners of mobile phones lines courtesy of the competition engendered by Glo. Every major step Glo took from the day it commenced operation, other mobile competitors were jittery, helpless and followed the initiative in other to remain in the market.
After establishing the footprints of Glo in Nigeria, Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr.), also took the telecom giant to Ghana and Benin Republic with mobile operating licences in those countries. Unsatisfied with the routing of calls from Africa countries to Europe then back to Africa, he built Glo-1, the first international submarine cable system that was solely financed by an individual. Today, Glo-1 links global telecom networks, data centres, banks and Interconnect houses to millions of businesses across the world.
Globacom has going a notch higher with Glo-2 ensuring that Nigerian cities, towns and villages and oil companies are connected to terrestrial fibres through its landing stations in Lagos and Niger Delta.
Digital Financial Services
Dr Adenuga (Jnr.), a man who can see opportunities from afar, has took the lead in procuring Super-Agent licence for Agency Banking and Mobile Money licence from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with the establishment of Glo Mobile Money and Money Master Payment Service Bank Limited, a Digital Bank delivering financial inclusion services to Nigerians especially in rural, semi-rural and urban areas thus connecting them to the formal sector.
Oil, Gas Transformations
He transformed the face of Nigerian oil, banking, and telecommunications industries. In 1991, when oil mining and production was controlled by foreign multinational companies (MNCs), Dr. Adenuga’s (Jnr.) indigenous oil company was the first to start drilling crude oil. Today, Conoil has metamorphosed into one of the largest African-owned oil conglomerates on the continent with footprints in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the oil and gas sector.
His forays into the bank industry are well documented where he brought a fresh energy and bespoke financial services with Devcom Merchant Bank and Equatorial Trust Bank (ETB) which later merged into Sterling Bank.
Man flowing with Milk of Human Kindness
The humanitarian side of this famous Nigerian billionaire is incomparable. Although, coming from a middle-class family, Dr. Mike Adenuga’s (Jnr.) academic sojourn in the United States of America and the everyday life lessons internalized from his parents, Chief Michael Agbolade Adenuga (Snr) and Madam Oyindamola Adenuga, shaped his worldview and brought out his humane side in the way he deals with people and businesses.
He has been a major supporter of sports, especially football (Nigerian national teams). He has massively sponsored the Confederation of African Football (CAF) Awards for many years. He was honoured the title of Pillar of Football in Africa for his strong support for African Football at both national and continental. He has quietly rendered support to many without seeking media attention.
Through him, Glo sponsors the annual Ojude Oba festival in Ijebuland and also the Ofala festival in Onitsha, Anambra amongst others, promoting Nigeria’s rich culture. He has been major supporting of the Nigerian entertainment industry, turning many Nigerian and Ghanaian actors into instant millionaires through the Glo Ambassador programme.
A lover of education and the arts, Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr.) through his companies has sponsored several initiatives such as Glo Campus, and offered scholarships to thousands of the downtrodden to pursue their academic dreams.
Humble Beginnings
A man of outstanding wisdom, Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr.) was born Michael Adeniyi Agbolade Ishola Adenuga on April 29, 1953 at Ibadan, Oyo State. His father was a school teacher while his mother was an outstanding businesswoman.
Dr. Adenuga (Jnr) is an alumnus of the famous Ibadan Grammar School, North Western State University, Alva Oklahoma; and Pace University, New York, both in the United States of America where he majored in business administration with emphasis in marketing. As a student in the USA, he supported himself with jobs as a taxi driver and security guard.
Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr) is a visionary leader, an outstanding entrepreneur and and manager of people and resources. He is a man of uncommon intellect and wisdom have helped him overcome difficult times. Today, he sits atop a vast telecom, oil and gas (Conoil), banking and real estate investments.
As Dr. Mike Adenuga (Jnr) clocks 72 years on Tuesday April 29th, 2025, SiliconNigeria.ng wishes him a marvelous birthday and many happy returns in good health in the service of the fatherland.
