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Global Payments Revenue Forecast Down to $1.8trn Amid Pandemic

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Annual global payments revenues could reach $1.8 trillion under a quick Covid-rebound scenario, according to data from the Boston Consulting Group, representing a considerable slowdown in growth from pre-pandemic boom times.

The consultancy’s annual Global Payments Report, compiled using data from Swift, includes three revenue growth scenarios based on global GDP development.

Under a quick-rebound scenario, BCG’s outlook suggests that the global payments revenue pool will expand from $1.5 trillion in 2019 to $1.8 trillion in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent. Although solid, this CAGR is much lower than the 7.3 per cent annual growth the industry enjoyed from 2014 to 2019.

In a slow-recovery scenario, the global revenue pool would reach $1.7 trillion by 2024, a CAGR of 2.7 per cent. Under a deeper-impact scenario, the revenue pool would grow by only a moderate CAGR of 1.1 per cent.

The second half of the decade, however, looks considerably brighter, driven by economic expansion, advancements in payments infrastructure, e-commerce growth, and greater financial inclusion.

From 2024 to 2029, global payments revenues should rise by 4.4 per cent to 5.6 per cent annually, states the consultancy, roughly 1.5 times faster than the growth of banking revenues overall. By 2029, the revenue pool could swell to between $1.9 trillion and $2.4 trillion, depending on the extent of the economic recovery.

“By accelerating changes that traditionally take a decade to materialise in the payments industry, the pandemic and its aftermath have created a window for the most talented companies to leapfrog the competition, gain scale, and deliver customer impact,” says Yann Sénant, a Paris-based BCG managing director and partner, co-author of the report, and global leader of the firm’s payments and transaction banking segment. “That ticking clock means that payments players that act decisively now will have a clear advantage over the rest of the field.”

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Financial

Huawei Moves Into Financial Services Industry

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Huawei announced the launch of the Financial Partner Go Global Program (FPGGP) Acceleration Program during the 2024 HiFS Frontier Forum. Huawei aims to work with more partners that have extensive industry-specific experience, focus on key scenarios within digital transformation in the global financial industry, and unite program participants and their capacity to innovate.

In this way, Huawei and partners can support the transformation and upgrade of customers in the financial industry throughout the lifecycle from consultation, solutions, to services, achieving win-win cooperation for all involved.

Jason Cao, Vice President of Huawei and CEO of Huawei Digital Finance BU, stated that Huawei is committed to building a global ecosystem for the digital finance industry. This involves global leading partners, those who are engaged in the local industry, and who are innovators in segmented scenarios. “Huawei has worked with partners to develop innovative scenario-based solutions in eight mainstream industry scenarios, from infrastructure O&M to application system platforms, from core business transactions to big data applications, and from banking to insurance and securities.”

FPGGP made its debut in 2021. Over the past three years, FPGGP has worked with 11 partners to successfully deliver solutions and complete digital transformation for over 20 financial customers in 14 countries and regions worldwide. Now, it had 24 partners join in China, among which six became council members: Sunline, Tongdun Technology, Netis, Wallyt, Sinosoft, and Chinasoft International.

Roger Wang, Vice President of Huawei Digital Finance BU and President of Global Partnerships, said that Huawei stick to the “Partners + Huawei” strategy and keep cooperating with world-leading financial partners for shared success, and provide excellent solutions, innovation capabilities, and outstanding practices with partners. As of May 2024, Huawei has served over 3600 financial customers in more than 60 countries and regions, including 53 of the world’s top 100 banks.

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Emerging Technologies

Access Holdings Calls for Responsible Use of AI

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Access Holdings PLC, a leading financial services group, has echoed the need for ethical considerations in using Artificial Intelligence (AI), calling stakeholders in the financial industry to factor its sustainability implications. This call to action was driven by a compelling keynote address delivered by Lanre Bamisebi, Executive Director of IT & Digitalisation at Access Holdings, at the Smart Banking Summit 2024 held in Kenya  recently.

Speaking on the topic, “AI Guardians: Securing Compliance and Mitigating Risks,” Bamisebi’s keynote shed light on the imperative to strike a balance between innovation and responsibility as the banking sector and broader society embrace AI’s transformative potential.

“Artificial Intelligence has the power to revolutionise our societies. Over the years, this has become increasingly evident, offering unprecedented opportunities for growth, efficiency, and innovation. From enhancing customer service to optimising risk management, AI’s potential benefits in finance are vast. However, as we embrace AI, we must also ensure that its deployment is ethical, secure, and compliant with regulatory standards to mitigate risks effectively,” he said.

As the transformative power of AI continues to fuel innovation, concerns remain about its negative impact on the environment. According to OpenAI researchers, since 2012, the amount of computing power required to train cutting-edge AI models has doubled every 3.4 months. They also posit that by 2040, the emissions from the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry will reach 14 per cent of the global emissions, with the bulk of those emissions coming from ICT infrastructure, particularly data centres and communication networks.

Speaking to these concerns, Bamisebi said, “The exponential growth of AI adoption must be met with thoughtful consideration for its environmental footprint. As we harness the power of AI, we must prioritise sustainable practices to mitigate its energy consumption and carbon emissions, ensuring a harmonious coexistence between technological advancement and environmental preservation.

“We must embrace our roles as guardians, and place comprehensive regulatory frameworks, ethical standards, and continuous learning at the fore of our considerations so that we create a future that is safe, inclusive, and prosperous for all,” Bamisebi charged.

Themed ‘Navigating the Next: Africa’s Leap into Smart, Secure, and Inclusive Banking’, the summit was a pivotal gathering of leaders spearheading the digital evolution in the African banking and finance space.

Other contributors at the summit include Winnie Kaaka, Head of Product and Digital Banking, Access Bank Plc; Harry Hare, Co-Founder and Chairman, dx5; Moses Okundi, CIO/CTO, Absa; Tim Theuri, CISO, Safaricom/M-Pesa Africa; Daniel Adaramola, CISO, SunTrust Bank Nigeria Ltd; Steve Njenga, Founder and CEO, Metis Technology Solutions Ltd, and more.

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IT in Banking

Tribunal Okays Visa and Mastercard Card Fee Case

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A UK tribunal has ruled that interchange fee lawsuits against Visa and Mastercard can proceed. The two US giants are being sued on behalf of hundreds of merchants over the multilateral interchange fees charged for accepting card payments.

Having initially declined to certify the cases, London’s Competition Appeal Tribunal has now given the green light for revised applications to proceed. The decision is the latest development in a long-running series of suits over the fees Visa and Mastercard charge merchants.

Commercial litigation law firm Harcus Parker is bringing the case on behalf of UK businesses in a case that could seek at least £7.5 billion in compensation.

Last month, the Payment System Regulator stepped back from imposing financial penalties on Visa and Mastercard scheme and processing fees, despite evidence that the firms are running an effective duopoly in the supply of services to merchants.

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