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Global Payments Revenue Forecast Down to $1.8trn Amid Pandemic

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Annual global payments revenues could reach $1.8 trillion under a quick Covid-rebound scenario, according to data from the Boston Consulting Group, representing a considerable slowdown in growth from pre-pandemic boom times.

The consultancy’s annual Global Payments Report, compiled using data from Swift, includes three revenue growth scenarios based on global GDP development.

Under a quick-rebound scenario, BCG’s outlook suggests that the global payments revenue pool will expand from $1.5 trillion in 2019 to $1.8 trillion in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent. Although solid, this CAGR is much lower than the 7.3 per cent annual growth the industry enjoyed from 2014 to 2019.

In a slow-recovery scenario, the global revenue pool would reach $1.7 trillion by 2024, a CAGR of 2.7 per cent. Under a deeper-impact scenario, the revenue pool would grow by only a moderate CAGR of 1.1 per cent.

The second half of the decade, however, looks considerably brighter, driven by economic expansion, advancements in payments infrastructure, e-commerce growth, and greater financial inclusion.

From 2024 to 2029, global payments revenues should rise by 4.4 per cent to 5.6 per cent annually, states the consultancy, roughly 1.5 times faster than the growth of banking revenues overall. By 2029, the revenue pool could swell to between $1.9 trillion and $2.4 trillion, depending on the extent of the economic recovery.

“By accelerating changes that traditionally take a decade to materialise in the payments industry, the pandemic and its aftermath have created a window for the most talented companies to leapfrog the competition, gain scale, and deliver customer impact,” says Yann Sénant, a Paris-based BCG managing director and partner, co-author of the report, and global leader of the firm’s payments and transaction banking segment. “That ticking clock means that payments players that act decisively now will have a clear advantage over the rest of the field.”

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Basel Committee Unveils Report on Digitalisation of Finance

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The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision today published a report that considers the implications of the ongoing digitalisation of finance on banks and supervision.

The report builds on the Sound Practices: implications of fintech developments for banks and bank supervisors published in 2018, and takes stock of recent developments in the digitalisation of finance.

The report reviews the use of key innovative technologies across various aspects of the banking value chain, including application programming interfaces, artificial intelligence and machine learning, distributed ledger technology and cloud computing. It also considers the role of new technologically enabled suppliers (eg big techs, fintechs and third-party service providers) and business models.

While digitalisation can benefit both banks and their customers, it can also create new vulnerabilities and amplify existing risks. These can include greater strategic and reputational risks, a larger scope of factors that could test banks’ operational risk and resilience, and potential system-wide risks due to increased interconnections. Banks are implementing various strategies and practices to mitigate these risks, but effective governance and risk management processes remain fundamental.

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Namibia Signs on for India’s UPI Tech

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The Bank of Namibia has called in NPCI International Payments to help the southern African country develop an instant payments system based on India’s hugely successful UPI. Namibia will tap into the technology and expertise behind India’s UPI to develop real-time P2P and merchant payments. NIPL says it will help Namibia modernise its financial ecosystem, boosting the accessibility, affordability and connectivity for both domestic and international payment networks.

Launched in 2016, the UPI has been central to India’s efforts to use digital payments to boost financial inclusion and has now handled well over 100 billion transactions.

The NPCI international subsidiary was set up in 2020 to push the UPI, as well as the RuPay card network, outside of India. Earlier this year, the unit struck a deal with Nepal’s largest payment network and it has also joined forces with Google Pay to accelerate global expansion.

Johannes Gawaxab, governor, Bank of Namibia, says: “Our objective is to enhance accessibility and affordability for underserved populations, achieve full interoperability of payment instruments by 2025, modernize the financial sector, and ensure a secure and efficient National Payment System.

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G20 Unveils SLAs for Cross-border Payment

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The G20 has identified service level agreements (SLAs) as a priority in helping to achieve its targets in cross-border payment by end-2027. The SLAs define minimum service levels for correspondent banking relationships, the links between payment systems and payment instrument rulebooks.

This can help to meet the G20 goals of making cross-border payments cheaper, faster, more transparent and more accessible, while also ensuring their safety.

The report contains high-level recommendations, key features and guiding questions to inform parties involved in such arrangements. Payment service providers, correspondent banks and/or payment system operators are encouraged to consider the recommendations when establishing new agreements or reviewing existing ones.

The recommendations, key features and guiding questions were informed by a year-long interaction with public and private stakeholders. The recommendations were deliberately kept at a high level. They should not put an undue burden on new and smaller payment arrangements, while still contributing to increased harmonization of new and existing agreements.

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